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Workshop Report on
Drought-Related Issues in Dry Zone
September 25, 2009
Local Resource Center, Yangon
Background:
The dry zone receives an annual
precipitation of no more than about 700 mm.
Furthermore, the amount of rainfall can vary
greatly from year to year, posing severe
difficulties for agricultural production not
seen in other regions. Consequently, crop
failures due to drought frequently occurred
in this region year by year. With little or
no documentation of drought related issues
of dry zone, the impact on the agriculture,
markets, livestock, social dynamic,
non-agriculture, livelihood and employment
of these has not been estimated.
Participants:
U Shwe Thein (CARE); Jared Hove, Htun Thiri
Shein (IDE); Vincent Roger, Aung Khine Tun ,
Mra Sabai Nyun (MercyCorps); Eva Vognlid (MIMU)
, U Bobby, Myat Thu Thint (NAG); Tin Htun
Win, Susana Raffalli (Oxfam); Naing Oo,
Fahmid Bhuiya (PACT); Nicola Michelon, Khin
Khin Aye (TDH-td); Sander Aung, Isidro
Navarro, SiuSue Mark (Save the Children), U
Aye Lwin, Jess Garana (UNDP): Khin Moe Aye,
Nan Sang Aye, Sarah Gordon-Gibson (WFP); Saw
Fultan, Vicotr Myint Thein (World Vision);
Dr. Ohnmar Khaing (FSWG)
The Objectives of the
Workshop:
o Sharing information on practical experiences of drought
o Setting up action plan for possible collaborative efforts
The Agenda:
1) Agency presentations on current situation
2) Group discussion
3) Agreement on follow-up actions
Summary Points of the
Current Situation:
Rainfall progression was analyzed in 3
phases: pre monsoon, monsoon and post
monsoon References from the field indicate
that pre-monsoon rain did not happen (late
rain arrival), monsoon rains have been
scarce and post-monsoon rains are still
expected by late October
Drop in monsoon rains is documented at 45%
- 65% of rainfall average in the last 5
years (amount of rain)
Worst affected divisions: Mandalay and
Sagaing (worst affected townships to be
listed).Magway is less affected (see
Appendix II)
Worst affected crops are those planted in
the pre-monsoon and monsoon phases, mainly
rice (50% - 70% drop in transplanted area),
sesame and sunflower (80% - 90% drop in crop
yield practically a crop collapse) (see
appendix I)
No indication of food shortages in markets
Grazing areas for livestock affected.
Farmers having extraordinary expenses for
buying fodder. Livestock health
deteriorating but no livestock mortality
documented.
Cereal prices increased 10%-20% but normal
for this time of the year. Terms of trade
for
cattle drop 30% (indicative of difficulties
for animal breading but still not critical)
Drinking Water: water sources and
reservoirs apparently enough for householdconsumption, not for livestock and
agriculture. Families
in need to dig deeper
for accessing
water and to travel longer distances
Decrease in farm labour opportunities
associated to the failure in rice and
oilseeds crops
Increasing trend of outmigration,
including women
Borrowing money as high as 30% rate
Failure in agricultural loan repayment in
worst affected townships
No available data on nutritional status
(malnutrition)
Abundance of crop pest (leaf roller)
All power points are attached and can be
accessed from the MIMU Website.
Way Forward
Scenario Planning:
o Still the situation is not indicative of a
crisis. No emergency response needed until
we can
assess the rainfall pattern in the
post-monsoon phase (October)
o Best case scenario: enough rain in the
October post-monsoon phase
o Worse case scenario: no more rains (total
monsoon withdrawal)
If rainfall patter doesnt improve in
October, situation of water reserves and
food stocks will
be critical by February March
Immediate Actions:
Assessment October 2009:
WFP will take the lead in conducting the
assessment, with the following schedule:
Agencies in Dry Zone are welcomed to
participate:
20-23 Oct 2009: provide training to
enumerators including one day field testing
24 Oct to 2 Nov: data collection in the
field.
We have already submitted the permission
letter to DDA as they are our line
department for Dry
Zone operation and the staffs from DDA will
also join us as an observer for the
assessment.
The assessment will cover: Pakokku, Pauk,
Yesagyo, Myaing, Yenanchaung, Chauck,
Natmauk, Magway and Sinbaungwe (possible)
We need a total of 28 enumerators to make up
7 teams of 4 persons for the assessment. We
expect from cooperating agencies to provide
staffs for the assessment and if possible,
vehicles
for transportation. WFP will provide DSA for
the staffs during training and data
collection in the
field plus actual transportation cost from
and to their duty station to Magway if they
have to use
public transportation. If cooperating
agencies provide vehicle, WFP will provide
fuel and dsa for
drivers too.Tthe staffs who will participate
in the assessment must attend the training
and must
join until completion of the data collection
in the field.
The contact for this assessment is:
Khin Moe Aye
Head of Sub-Office
WFP Magway
Tel: 09861 0016, 09857 2124, 09508 3018
E-mail:
khinmoe.aye@wfp.org
Continuous monitoring of the situation
based on key few indicators and relying on
information collected from agencies already
working at the field
Preliminary Indicators identified include:
o rainfall pattern
o crop yield and loss (expected and previous)
o loss of on- farm labor
o number of acres cultivated (present and previous)
o reducing livestock assets and animal mortality
o market movements/access
o nutritional status (malnutrition)
o access to water (drinking, irrigation)
o water source (tube well)
o capital for planting season
o sale of productive assets
o food intake consumption
o level of migration
MIMU and NAG willing to support in
managing the information gathered for
monitoring
Pending agreement on basic indicators for
monitoring (to be discussed in next 2-3
weeks)
Water scarcity is very extreme in some
places: there is a need to build/maintain
water
harvesting infrastructure, fodder
distribution, evaluate the necessity of
emergency water
response
Special assistance in support to the
upcoming summer cropping season may be
needed.
Crops with still some chances to be
successful: chick pea (planting), pigeon
peas (harvest),
onion, chilly, summer paddy. Summer cropping
season may start earlier (late October) to
take advantage of the soil humidity
Post Assessment Steps:
The next coordination meeting in November
to discuss the results of the WFP-led
assessment with and to see if any
coordinated follow-up action is needed
Fundraising for special emergency funds if
necessary (worst case scenario)
Explore NGOs harmonization for submitting
proposals to LIFT
Appendix I Dry Zone
Drought Effect on Agriculture
Appendix II Mapping
Drought Effected Townships in Dry Zone
* Moderate ** Severe *** Worst
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